Our base case is this: the bottom is likely on price, but not on time. Continued consolidation throughout Q2 is the most probable near-term outcome. The short-term holder cost basis is declining at approximately $1,000 per week and is on track to converge with the current price range around May or June, precisely when the Federal Reserve leadership transition takes effect.

The coil is tightening.

This is “accumulation territory.”

For a comprehensive analysis, download the free report here:

https://www.blockwaresolutions.com/blockware-q1-2026-market-update/

Download The Free Report

“This transaction enhances financial flexibility and increases strategic optionality as we expand beyond pure-play bitcoin mining into digital energy and AI/HPC infrastructure” - Fred Thiel (CEO)

The biggest story across Bitcoin, Finance, and Technology in 2026 is large-scale data center operators pivoting from Bitcoin Mining to Artificial Intelligence. This pivot is not due to a fault with Bitcoin or Bitcoin Mining. Rather, it’s a testament to how lucrative it is to be in Ai right now.

Firstly, the business models are essentially fungible.

Both require data centers with low-cost power.

If you own a data center, you must choose how to monetize that asset:

1. Self-Mining

2. Hosting (BTC Miners or Ai Servers)

The table below provides a side-by-side comparison between Bitcoin Mining (at current market prices) or Ai hosting (at $0.17/kWh).

At present, hosting Ai servers will earn ~1.64x more than running a fleet of Antminer S21 XPs. Furthermore, this likely understates the Ai side of the equation because recent large scale hosting deals have been at rates north of $0.20/kWh.

Not only is the revenue generally higher with Ai hosting, it’s far more predictable. Ai contracts are often signed for terms of 10 or more years; providing the data center operator with consistent positive cashflow, at a predictable clip, for over a decade.

For CFO’s of publicly traded data center operators, the higher gross revenue plus predictability makes Ai hosting a no-brainer.

Why This is a Good Thing

The “difficulty” to mine BTC is directly correlated to the amount of compute on the network. There’s a finite amount of BTC, fewer large scale miners competing for that means smaller miners (those without large-scale data centers) will earn more BTC.

For the first time in Bitcoin’s history, we’re seeing a sustained decrease in Hash Rate / Mining Difficulty. Over the past 90-days, hash rate is down ~6%. Previous drawdowns in hash rate were induced by:

• China Mining Man

• BTC Dropping to $16,000 in 2022

• 2024 Halving Putting Pressure in Inefficient Miners

None of these drops in hash rate were sustained long-term; this time is likely different. Demand for Ai servers is accelerating faster than new data centers can be built, which means hosting rates will likely increase, and more large miners will be incentivized to pivot.

As difficulty drops, Bitcoin Mining will become more lucrative to medium and smaller miners; those without access to the economies of scale that make Ai hosting an option.

Even though the price of BTC is down, Bitcoin miners are mining more BTC per unit of compute due to fewer large scale miners competing for the ~450 BTC that are mined daily.

Blockware’s Mining as a Service enables a ‘Cap Ex Lite’ model of Bitcoin Mining. Rather than building your own data center, you can mine BTC at one of ours:

• 100% Bonus Depreciation on the Miners

• 1 Cap Ex. = ASICs

• 1 Op. Ex. = Power Costs

• Production Cost of ~$50k per BTC

If you’ve ever considered mining Bitcoin, entering the market now will allow you to scoop up the BTC that large public operators are leaving on the table. Fill out the form here to learn more: https://www.blockwaresolutions.com/info

Mitchell Askew, Head of Blockware Intelligence, breaks down the ‘Ai Pivot’ in the latest video on the Blockware YouTube channel. Check it out 👇

The one-year price chart tells the story of Q1 in a single frame. After failing twice to reclaim the $75,000 level as support, Bitcoin broke down sharply in February, dropping to a low of approximately $60,000. That $60,000 level has since held, and March has produced a quieter, more constructive base. The $75,000 level now sits as the key resistance to watch on the way back up.

The failed recapture of the short-term holder cost basis was the technical trigger for the flush. Two attempts. Two rejections. The market needed to wash out the remaining weak hands before a real base could form, and it did exactly that.

Read more

However, a series of higher highs and higher lows throughout March provide a glimmer of short-term hope. Medium to long-term, the data strongly signals that this is the time to be accumulating heavily.

Our base case currently is that the “bottom” is likely in from a price perspective, but perhaps not from a time perspective.

Speaking of accumulation, Bitcoin Miners accumulate BTC every day at a discount to the market price. A single S21 XP mining at $0.070/kWh uses ~$6 per day in electricity to produce ~$9 worth of BTC.

$9 worth of BTC for $6.

Nearly a 50% discount to the market price.

For long-term accumulators, this is a great asset in the portfolio.

Additionally, 100% Bonus Depreciation on the hardware makes this especially appealing from a tax-mitigation perspective.

Sign up for a free consultation to learn more: https://www.blockwaresolutions.com/info

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• BTC: +12%

• SPX: -2%

• TLT: -4%

• Gold: -7%

• Silver: -16%

While this is a relatively short-window, the recent outperformance is raising green flags for BTC bulls. BTC normally struggles during periods of large-scale macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.

This recent price action hints at idiosyncratic factors, likely a supply shortage, that are proving to be more impactful on the market than marginal demand changes due to this event.

This relief rally for BTC has come at a time in which the market began pricing in a more hawkish position from the Federal Reserve. The market is now placing a 39% chance of no more rate cuts this year. A hawkish shift in policy expectations, normally a bearish catalyst for BTC, having no impact on the price is yet another piece of evidence towards idiosyncratic supply/demand dynamics in BTC.

In layman terms, there’s (likely) nobody left holding BTC that is willing to sell or change their position due to factors such as geopolitics or Fed policy; only the hardcore holders are still in the market.

The type to continue holding BTC after a 50% drawdown (plus 75 to 99% drawdowns in BTC related equities), is convicted in their long-term thesis.

Blockware’s “Buy the Dip Promo”, valid while BTC is under $75,000 per coin, is less than a 2% move away from expiring.

• 1 Free Month of Hosting

• $15/T on S21 XPs (online less than 24 hours after purchase)

• $0.070/kWh Electricity Rate

Acquiring miners today will allow you to accumulate BTC everyday at a discount even at it rallies higher over the next 12 to 24 months.

Additionally, miners qualify for 100% Bonus Depreciation under Section 168(k). This means you can deduct 100% of the miner cost in a single tax year.

For more information, set up a free consultation with a member of our team here: https://www.blockwaresolutions.com/promo

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Job Number 1: HODL & Appreciate

Job Number 2: Working Capital for a Bitcoin Mining Business

Most Bitcoiners struggle to choose between “Buying & Holding Bitcoin” and “Mining Bitcoin.”

But it doesn’t have to be a binary choice.

It’s not one or the other.

You can do both.

Product’s like Strike’s newly launched ‘BLOC’ enable this at scale.

Most HODLers let their BTC sit idle. This strategy uses a Bitcoin Line of Credit (BLOC) to access your capital without selling your BTC. Instead of selling BTC to buy hardware, we borrow against it to acquire a 20-miner fleet of Antminer S21 XPs. Additionally, this strategy using the same credit line to “float” the monthly power bills — allowing you to HODL 100% of the mining rewards, rather than selling off a portion of the rewards as you go in order to cover the power bill.

The Parameters

• Collateral: 10 BTC ($690,000 initial value).

• Hardware: 20 Antminer S21 XPs ($81,500 initial loan).

• OpEx: $3,796.64/month electricity ($0.07/kWh) added to the BLOC.

• Cost of Capital: 13% annualized interest, compounded daily.

• Market Assumptions: 30% BTC CAGR; 15% annual network difficulty growth.

The Rewards

Bitcoin Mining is the logical conclusion for a “dollar cost average” investor. You acquire BTC everyday, but at a discount to the market price. Additionally, the hardware used to mine the BTC qualifies for 100% Bonus Depreciation (more on that below).

The table below shows the 4-year output of this hypothetical mining operation. ~2.05 BTC mined over four years (including the 2028 halving).

Tax Savings

By writing-off the miner cost & power cost, this hypothetical miner would have ~$263,000 of qualified deductions over a 4-year period; with nearly half of that coming in the first year.

At a 21% tax rate, this would result in ~$55,000 of savings across 4 years. This could be used to buy more BTC, pay down the loan directly, or added as collateral to the loan.

Liabilities

Given that a BLOC does not require monthly payments and has no set re-payment debt, it’s a great choice for a leveraged Bitcoin-accumulation strategy like this — as it allows the BTC plenty of time to appreciate relative to the 13% interest rate. Based on the initial credit for the hardware plus monthly pulls of credit to cover the power costs, the total debt at the end of the term is ~$372,000.

The total incremental value built over the four-year period is ~$86,000; more than initial cost of the miners themselves.

Including the 10 BTC of initial collateral, the entire portfolio consists of 12.05 BTC at ~$197,000 per BTC (30% BTC CAGR) + the still profitable Antminer S21 XPs.

Assets: $2,459,998

Liabilities: $372,919

Net Portfolio Value: $2,087,079

For an-indepth analysis of this strategy, check out the latest video on the Blockware YouTube channel (linked below).

For a free consultation about setting up your own mining operation, sign up here: https://www.blockwaresolutions.com/info

Strike’s introduction of the Bitcoin Line of Credit (BLOC) is another step down the path of Bitcoin financialization. This product allows users to draw as little as $1 against their BTC collateral with no fixed maturity date, effectively transforming Bitcoin into a revolving credit facility. Unlike traditional fixed-term loans that require upfront commitment, this model allows Bitcoiners to remain “short dollars” while maintaining their full upside exposure.

Products like this solve a core dilemma for Bitcoin holders: How can I access this capital without actually selling the Bitcoin?

Bitcoin is “money”, and money is designed to be saved. But serious capital allocators have their money performing multiple jobs. Simply holding BTC means you’re delegating one of the best performing assets to just a single job. Accessing the liquidity to use BTC as working capital, while not selling the underlying asset and removing your exposure, creates an immense amount of optionality. You just need to be cautious on your LTV — don’t borrow so much to the point where a normal BTC pullback forces you to liquidate your collateral.

Oil Prices Dropping Back Down

After a violent spike toward $120 following the escalation of the US-Israel-Iran conflict and the subsequent chokepoint disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, oil’s retreat to $95 provides a tentative breather for global markets. However, at nearly $40 above the pre-war baseline of $55–$60, this "settled" price still carries a heavy "war premium" that complicates the global inflation outlook.

This level remains high enough to strain the budgets of net energy importers, particularly across Asia, while also forcing central banks to reconsider the pace of projected 2026 rate cuts. Emergency measures like Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases or naval escorts are likely being used to suppress prices in the short-term. However, if/when conflict subsides, prices will drop further and dovish policy will get priced back into risk assets.

Tech Indices Showing Signs of Life

Bitcoin, due to the market’s perception of it as a risk-on tech investment, has been caught in the crossfire of the widespread sell-off across tech. However, over the past two weeks, we’re seeing major tech indices begin to recover.

Over the past week, $IGV, $WCLD, and are all up by more than 5%.

Kevin Warsh Officially Nominated for Fed Chair Position

After months of speculation and rumors, we officially know who President Trump’s pick for the next Fed Chairman will be. If confirmed by the senate (likely but not without some turbulence), Warsh will take office mid-May, with his first FOMC meeting / rate decision being June 16th & 17th.

As we mention frequently, Bitcoin doesn’t trade well during uncertainty macro-environments. The installation of Warsh and his subsequent posturing & policy will be an important moment of clarity. Right now markets are not pricing in extreme dovishness. However, the President might have other expectations for the Fed Chair, especially with mid-term elections looming.

Read more

While Hash Rate has rebounded following the winter-weather-induced curtailments, it still remains ~10% below its all-time high.

In today’s newsletter, we’ll discuss why this is happening, what the future likely holds, and an important practical application for Bitcoiners.

The primary reason Hash Rate has not made a new all-time high in nearly four months is because neither has the Bitcoin price.

The “cost of production” can vary wildly for every different Bitcoin miner. ASIC model, power cost, interest payments, etc. — there’s a number of factors that can determine what the Bitcoin price has to be in order for a miner to mine profitably. For Blockware Clients mining at $0.07/kWh using the most efficient miners available, that’s ~$52,000.

However, for miners with less optimized operations, the number is much higher. As BTC dropped from $125,000 to $60,000, miners with high breakeven prices turned off their machines. This allows Blockware clients and other high-efficiency miners to earn more BTC at the expense of the less-efficient miners.

~450 Bitcoin are mined every day. No more, no less. Fewer miners competing for these 450 BTC means every miner gets a little bit more. The chart below shows the daily BTC earnings for a miner running ten S21 XP 270’s.

10 Units currently mine ~0.0012 BTC every day.

Year-to-date, Hash Rate is down ~2.9%. While it’s highly unlikely that 2026 will end with a net-decrease in Hash Rate, it’s likely that it will be the least amount of growth in hash rate in a single calendar year.

The growth rate of Hash Rate is declining for 2 key reasons:

1. Improvements in mining technology are slim.

2. Large data center operators are electing to run HPC/Ai servers instead due to more predictable streams of revenue.

   

At Blockware we often refer to mining as a “Discounted Dollar Cost Average Strategy.”

Instead of buying BTC for market price, you produce a little bit of BTC at a discount (~$52k per BTC right now) every single day. The money you otherwise would have spent on a recurring DCA, you instead use to operate your machines — resulting in more BTC per $ spend.

With fewer miners competing for the finite amount of BTC, this strategy is even more powerful.

If you have a bullish stance on BTC long-term, the appreciation of your mining rewards will more than cover the cost of the mining hardware.

Our ‘Buy The Dip Promo’ is still live — but ONLY while BTC trades below $75,000.

• Antminer S21 XPs for $4,050 per Unit ($15/Th)

• Hosting at $0.070/kWh

• 1 Free Month of Power for Every Miner Purchased

For more details, fill out the form on this page and a member of our team will be in touch: https://www.blockwaresolutions.com/promo

When investors are uncertain and want to get into dollars fast, they sell what they can; which often times is BTC. Alternatively, if investors want to get long fast, but traditional markets are closed, they buy what they can; which often times is BTC.

Over the weekend, as conflict arose between the U.S. and Iran, BTC, as expected, sold off immediately. However, the sell-off was incredibly weak ($65k to $63k) and followed with a swift rebound. The takeaway? The people still holding BTC, after a 50% drop from the high, are convicted long-term holders. We discussed in-detail in Friday’s premium only newsletter, but supply is beginning to constrict. While it may take a little while before this results in higher prices, its a sign of market recovery.

A steelman would point towards the fact the the S&P is green on the day — and the broader market is not concerned with this conflict. However, despite green intraday performance, the S&P opened the day ~50 points below its Friday close.

Moreover, a strong performance from the $DXY over the past day, signals that the conflict is igniting a relative degree of fear/uncertainty in the markets. When investors are nervous, they go to dollars.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI — a cornerstone metric for gauging industrial health — printed a reading of 52.4 for February. Because any value above 50 indicates an expansion in the manufacturing sector, this figure confirms that industrial activity is growing rather than contracting.

This is the second consecutive month with a PMI > 50; after months of sub-50 values. In 2017 & 2021, BTC rallied alongside economic expansion (indicated by high PMI values, among other data points). Now that Bitcoin is more widely available and traded by a more traditional cohort of investors, its reasonable to expect that is general correlation to macroeconomic business cycles will increase.

For reference, in 2023 & 2024, BTC rallied in-spite of poor PMI data. This is due to idiosyncratic catalysts, namely the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, which allowed BTC to catch a bid.

Could Bitcoin drop further? Sure.

Are current prices a great spot to be averaging into the market at? Absolutely.

Read more

That’s not how mining actually works.

Bitcoin’s price compounds over time. Network difficulty grows year over year. The halving cuts block rewards in half. And for high-income earners, the Section 179 tax deduction on hardware can dramatically change your true cost basis from day one.

We wanted a tool that modeled all of it — so we built one.

https://www.blockwaresolutions.com/calculator/

What the calculator lets you model:

Slide your investment amount from $40K to $1M and instantly see how many miners you’re deploying and how much hashrate you control. Adjust BTC price CAGR, difficulty growth, your tax rate, miner uptime, and your HODL ratio. Toggle on the tax reinvestment feature and watch your Year-1 tax refund get converted into BTC at today’s price — then appreciate alongside the rest of your stack.

The calculator also detects whether your hold period spans the April 2028 halving and adjusts block reward assumptions automatically.

Every number updates in real time.

What you’ll walk away knowing:

Your projected BTC stack at end of period, total portfolio value, effective net investment after tax savings, year-by-year revenue and profit breakdown, and your total ROI — cleanly separated so you can see exactly where the returns are coming from.

Head of Blockware Intelligence, Mitchell Askew, walked through the full tool on video. Watch it here to see how to get the most out of it:

If the projections make sense for your situation, we’re offering the Antminer S21 XP at $15/TH — with 1 month free hosting and electricity — BUT, this offer is only valid while BTC is under $75,000.

Click the button below to secure the discounted rate.

Secure The Discounted Rate

The transition from traditional software-as-a-service (SaaS) to agentic AI workflows has triggered a structural re-rating visible across the industry’s most prominent benchmarks. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV), once the standard-bearer for high-margin growth, is down 23% over the past year.

As autonomous AI agents begin to handle multi-step workflows that previously required several human operators, the total addressable market for traditional Software as a Service is shrinking, leading to a brutal contraction in valuation multiples for giants like Salesforce and Adobe.

While the broader cloud ecosystem initially benefited from the AI hype, the WisdomTree Cloud Computing ETF (WCLD) has fared even worse, posting a -31% return over the last 12 months. This reflects a capital rotation away from software application layers and toward the physical infrastructure, energy and hardware, required to power these models. Interestingly, the First Trust Cloud Computing ETF ($SKYY) has held up stronger than the others, with just an 11% decline Year-over-Year; largely buoyed by its heavier weightings in “hyperscalers” and infrastructure providers.

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index

The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has reached a critical inflection point, plummeting into “Extreme Fear” territory with single-digit readings not seen since the FTX collapse or the 2018 bear market depths. While the immediate price action, marked by the breach of the $65,000 support level, is undoubtedly painful for leveraged participants, the long-term data suggests this is a generational entry-point.

Historically, these clusters of “red” on the price chart have served as high-conviction signals for generational bottoms. With the index currently sitting well below its historical average, the “pain trade” for Bitcoin is increasingly skewed to the upside. For long-term holders, this sentiment washout is less a signal of failure and more a necessary “cooling off” period that resets the stage for the next leg of the macro bull cycle.

Strategy Completes 100th Bitcoin Buy

Strategy acquired an additional 592 BTC over the past week, bringing their total holdings to 717,722.

Despite the BTC price being down, the “strategy” (no pun intended) is working exactly as designed.

Strategy is transforming Bitcoin into a multi-tiered capital structure that functions as a “volatility transformer” for institutional and retail investors.

By securitizing its massive 717,722 BTC treasury into distinct products like STRC, STRK, STRF, and STRD, the company has decoupled Bitcoin’s underlying price action from credit-investor risk profiles. The tiered structure allows “transferred volatility” where senior instruments like STRC maintain stability near a $100 par value through variable dividend adjustments (recently hiked to 11.25%), while the high-beta MSTR common stock absorbs the brunt of market swings.

This ecosystem is designed to onboard a massive wave of capital that was previously sidelined by Bitcoin’s erratic nature. Because every dollar raised through the issuance of these preferred shares, such as the $78.4 million recently generated from STRC, is immediately funneled into additional Bitcoin purchases, the company is creating a perpetual accumulation engine. This model bridges the gap between traditional fixed-income investors and the digital asset space, turning Bitcoin into a productive “duration bet” that expands the total holder base while systematically increasing the company’s “Bitcoin per share”.

Stablecoin Market Surpasses $300 Billion

The stablecoin market has surpassed a $300 billion total market cap as it transitions from a niche trading tool into a foundational pillar of the global financial system. This shift is driven by a massive regulatory “unlock” from the SEC, which now allows broker-dealers to treat stablecoins as high-quality collateral with a mere 2% haircut, effectively placing them on par with money market funds for capital requirements.

Stablecoin issuers have become the 7th largest foreign holders of U.S. Treasuries, outranking nations like Germany and Saudi Arabia. This provides a mechanism for “stealth QE” as stablecoins reach previously untouched markets, ultimately allowing more capital to flow into US Treasuries.

Buy The Dip Promo - 1 Month of Free Electricity

For all Bitcoin Miners purchased in the month of February, Blockware is offering 1-month of free hosting (applied as a credit at the time of purchase). By owning Bitcoin Miners, you unlock advantages that spot buyers simply cannot access:

• Accumulate More for Less: Mining allows you to acquire Bitcoin at the “cost of production.” Over the life of your machine, the goal is to produce significantly more BTC than you could have purchased with the same initial capital today.

• Generate Free Cash Flow: Unlike holding an asset that only offers capital appreciation, mining is a cash-flowing business. When your cost of electricity is lower than the value of the BTC produced, you generate revenue paid out monthly.

• 100% Bonus Depreciation: In 2026, Bitcoin miners are eligible for 100% bonus depreciation. For example: If you purchase $50,000 in hardware this year, you can lower your 2026 taxable income by the full $50,000.

• Turnkey Solution: You own physical ASICs with unique serial numbers. While we handle the heavy lifting, sourcing low-cost power and 24/7 maintenance, you remain the operator of your own Bitcoin-producing business.

To see how much Bitcoin you could mine and measure your potential tax savings, check out the calculator here.

If you’re bullish BTC, this creates a “buy the dip” opportunity on the mining hardware side as well as the spot BTC side.

Next-generation Bitcoin miners are still producing BTC at a discount to the market price. An S21 XP (or equivalent machine) operating at $0.07/kWh has a BTC Breakeven price of ~$42,000 per BTC.

Conceptually, it helps to think of Bitcoin Mining as a “discounted dollar cost average” strategy. You can now acquire the same discounted DCA device for ~20% of the cost.

Buy The Dip Promo - 1 Month of Free Electricity

For all Bitcoin Miners purchased in the month of February, Blockware is offering 1-month of free hosting (applied as a credit at the time of purchase).

This means you’ll receive ~$200 in savings for every miner you purchase. There is no limit. Here’s how much you will save if you purchase:

5 Miners: $1,000 in Savings
10 Miners: $2,000 in Savings

25 Miners: $5,000 in Savings

You can purchase S21 XPs immediately through the Blockware Marketplace. The miners are plugged in already and you will begin earning BTC as soon as your payment is received.

For bulk discounts, contact sales@blockwaresolutions.com or fill out the form here: blockwaresolutions.com/promo

The recent Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) benchmark revision just delivered a massive reality check to the U.S. macroeconomic picture, slashing 2025’s total job growth from an initially reported 584,000 down to a remarkably weak 181,000. While January 2026 posted a seemingly strong gain of 130,000 jobs, erasing over 400,000 jobs from last year’s ledger confirms that the labor market was virtually stagnant throughout 2025. This historical downward revision exposes a much more fragile economic foundation than the “overheating” narrative previously suggested, signaling that the broader economy has actually been teetering on a low-hire equilibrium for months.

This pronounced labor market cooling is the exact fundamental cover the Federal Reserve needs to justify resuming interest rate cuts in the near term. In the current macroeconomic landscape, weak economic data is quickly interpreted as a bullish liquidity signal, driving a resurgence in risk-on sentiment across financial markets. As investors front-run the expectation of cheaper borrowing costs and expanded fiat liquidity, Bitcoin is uniquely positioned to benefit. Historically, Bitcoin thrives in environments where central banks are forced to pivot toward monetary easing to prop up a stalling economy, making this dramatic jobs revision a powerful macroeconomic tailwind for BTC.

CPI Cooling

CPI for January came in at ~2.4%. Continued cooling in CPI will provide the Fed with the necessary breathing room to lower borrowing costs without reigniting inflation. Ultimately, this macroeconomic backdrop, characterized by easing inflation and imminent rate reduction, creates a highly favorable setup for risk assets and crypto markets moving forward.

CME Futures Becomes More Hawkish

Despite some of the Fed’s most referenced data points pointing towards dovish policy, the CME Futures market on Fed Funds policy has moved hawkish. This market is now pricing in a 92% chance of a pause at the next meeting, up from 82% a week ago.

The Federal Reserve routinely claims that its policy decisions are entirely “data-dependent” (despite the apparent flaws in their data). If we take them at their word, the recent macroeconomic data, specifically the staggering downward jobs revision and a steadily cooling CPI, screams for monetary easing. Yet, as we saw with the CME FedWatch tool, consensus expectations have stubbornly shifted hawkish, currently pricing in a commanding 92% probability of a rate pause. This glaring disconnect between the weakening economic reality and hawkish consensus expectations presents a mispricing opportunity for attentive investors.

To see this mispricing in action, look no further than the bond market. Over the past month, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield has dropped roughly 10 basis points, plunging to 3.41%. Because the 2-year yield fundamentally reflects the market’s compounding daily rate expectations, this downward trajectory indicates that bond traders are expecting a dovish pivot, directly contradicting the hawkish CME probabilities. The bond market is effectively calling the Fed’s bluff.

Historically, when consensus expectations and the bond market diverge this sharply, the bond market is usually the one that gets it right. If smart money in the Treasury market is accurately sniffing out an incoming wave of liquidity, the eventual realization of rate cuts will force a rapid dovish repricing across Wall Street. For risk-on assets like Bitcoin, this creates the ultimate coiled spring: a market currently braced for restrictive policy that could suddenly find itself flooded with cheap capital.

Bitcoin Hashrate Rebounds

The sharp, temporary drawdown in hashrate wasn’t caused by a structural failure in the network; it was the direct result of extreme winter storms battering the United States in late January. As temperatures plummeted and regional power grids across states like Texas faced catastrophic strain, major U.S. mining operators voluntarily curtailed their operations. By rapidly unplugging roughly 40% of the global mining capacity to free up electricity for residential heating, miners acted as a vital pressure release valve for the grid. We accurately forecasted this exact phenomenon in our previous newsletters: when grid stress peaks, flexible loads like Bitcoin mining are the first to power down, leading to sudden, sharp hash rate dips that aggressively rebound the moment the weather clears.

While this event proves the symbiotic relationship between Bitcoin mining and energy infrastructure, it also serves as a stark warning to miners who have all their eggs in one basket. Hosting your entire fleet in a single state or on a single power grid exposes your capital to severe, unpredictable downtime. This is exactly where mining with Blockware provides an unparalleled advantage. We allow our clients to strategically diversify their ASIC hosting locations across multiple climates, grids, and jurisdictions. By geographically distributing your hardware, you inherently hedge against localized weather anomalies and grid failures. While operators concentrated in one region are forced offline to weather the storm, a diversified Blockware fleet ensures that the rest of your machines remain online, hashing consistently and generating uninterrupted yield.

With BTC down, the price of mining hardware has dipped accordingly. Now is the perfect time to load up on machines. To help you scale your operations with top-tier efficiency, and to take advantage of our geographically diversified hosting facilities, we are currently running a Limited Time S21 XP Promo.

If you’re looking to upgrade your fleet or deploy new capital without the risk of single-point-of-failure hosting, here is how you can get started right away:

• Hardware: Antminer S21 XP

• Price: $18.5/T

• Lead Time: Online & Hashing Immediately

• Special Bonus: 1 Month FREE Hosting

• Note: Bulk discounts are available on orders of $100,000 or more.

Secure your state-of-the-art machines, diversify your geographic footprint, and start generating BTC today.

For a step-by-step tutorial on how to use Blockware’s Self-Service Bitcoin Mining Marketplace, watch the video below. In under 5 minutes you can acquire a BTC miner that is already on the rack and plugged in at one of our state-of-the-art mining facilities.

Learn more by speaking with one of Blockware’s Bitcoin Mining Experts. Sign up for a free consultation today: https://blockwaresolutions.com/mine

Start Mining Bitcoin Today

This classic buffet quote, while cliche, perfectly encapsulates the current Bitcoin environment.

Our long-term Bitcoin thesis remains unshaken: a finite asset with zero counterparty risk will perform well in a regime of infinite fiat currency debasement.

The price action of the past four months has not altered this one bit.

What has changed, is this finite asset is now available for a significant discount.

In this week’s newsletter we’ll break down more than half a dozen high-signal on-chain indicators that show now is the time to be greedy. Many indicators are flashing the same signals we saw in the 2022 bear market; only this time BTC is 3x higher and the amount of participating institutions is 10x higher.

But first, you should know that the dip in the Bitcoin price has translated to an equally attractive opportunity in Bitcoin Mining. While supplies last, Blockware is offering a significant discount on next-generation mining hardware as well as 1-month of free hosting.

S21 XP’s are starting at $18.5/T. For reference, these units were selling for ~40% higher just two months ago. While profit margins are down with the BTC price, S21 XPs running at $0.075/kWh currently have a BTC Breakeven price of $48,000 – well below the current price.

Mining allows you to accumulate BTC everyday, regardless of price action. Market psychology is not in control. You are.

You can buy miners immediately by heading to the Blockware Marketplace:

https://marketplace.blockwaresolutions.com/

If you’d like to speak with a representative to learn more before making a purchase, fill out the form here: https://blockwaresolutions.com/promo

• For Marketplace purchases, the credit will be applied as a one-month hosting deposit (standard deposit is two months).

• For OTC orders placed through a Sales Representative, the credit will be applied directly to your invoice.

Now, let’s get into the data…

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The price action in precious metals is signaling trouble in the world of sovereign debt and fiat currency. Alongside extreme price appreciation (YTD: Gold +25%, Silver +54%), each has an intraday swing of more than 10% yesterday. While not necessarily out of the ordinary for silver, for an asset with a market cap as large as Gold, which now sits at a staggering $38 Trillion, this is an insane amount of volatility. The issue likely rests in the denominator; the “USD” part of the price equation.

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> Large % of All Hashrate is Located in the U.S.

> Extreme Temperatures in the U.S. Result in Higher Than Normal Energy Demand

> Miners Turn Off Machines in Response (This can be either due a contractual agreement with their energy supplier or due to a spike in energy rates making their operation temporarily unprofitable)

This is resulting in projected negative difficulty adjustment of -17%, the largest since 2021, when miners migrated en-masse from China to the United States. Seasonal variations in hash rate have become more common as Bitcoin Miners began concentrating within the United States, and this trend will likely continue for years to come.

The practical application of this knowledge is that you can and should expand your mining fleet across multiple locations. Why? When turbulent weather leads to a negative difficulty adjustment, you want to have miners online because you’ll be able to mine more Bitcoin. After the 17% drop in difficulty, revenue for miners still online will increase by 17%.

Blockware makes Bitcoin Mining incredibly simple. You can have miners hosted hundreds of miles away from each other; diversifying your exposure across multiple grids and climates.

Blockware is a US-based Mining-as-a-Service provider that’s been in business since 2017. We enable institutions and individuals to mine Bitcoin at scale with white glove service at world-class facilities in the United States.

Our platform, the Blockware Marketplace, allows our clientele to buy and sell machines as liquid commodities, as well as monitor machine performance, adjust payout settings, and get in touch with customer service. You simply purchase machines and collect rewards, while we manage the day-to-day operations of keeping your machines hashing.

To speak with a member of our team, fill out the form here: https://mining.blockwaresolutions.com/info

The 10 Year Yield for Japanese Bonds has reached a multi-decade high of ~2.25%.

With a Debt-to-GDP ratio higher than 200%, rising rates will have severe fiscal consequences for Japan. Ultimately, this will lead to further devaluation of the Yen.

U.S. retail investors tend to be well-aware of the U.S. Debt Problem — but Japan’s is twice as bad. However, the U.S. is on a similar trajectory. The relative insolvency of Japanese bonds is a foreshadowing of what will happen to U.S. Bonds (currently the “global reserve asset.”)

A large reason for the over-indebtedness of Japan is due to demographics. An aging population requires more support from the Government while fewer young people are working and providing a tax base.

In other words, from a Government’s fiscal perspective, they need to spend more while bringing in less revenue.

The difference is ultimately made up with debt and currency debasement.

The United States is on a similar trajectory as Japan in this regard. As the Baby Boomer & Gen X population ages while declining birth rates lead to an insufficient amount of new workers in younger generations — the US population pyramid will soon be “inverted” similarly to present-day Japan.

Mitchell Askew of Blockware provides an in-depth explanation in this clip from ‘Blockware Live’. Tune in every Tuesday & Thursday at 10am EST:

Precious metals have sniffed out the fiscal trouble rocking markets. Year-to-date, Gold is 18% and Silver is up 60%.

In a “normal” market, this type of precious metal price action would signal “risk-off”. However, with equity indices like QQQ and IWM also making new all-time highs (risk-on signal), the signal is trouble with the denominator.

USD is falling.

This is known as a “melt up.”

Bitcoin’s move higher will be next.

As we predicted last week, Bitcoin Mining difficulty is poised for a steep-decline in the wake of the current cold-front sweeping the United States. As of now, a 16% drop in mining difficulty is projected.

1. This does not mean “Bitcoin is broken”

2. This is a seasonal effect and mining difficulty will likely rebound quickly in the near future

3. This is a signal for Bitcoin Miners to diversify their fleet across multiple jurisdictions and grids.

If you only mine at one location and that location is impacted by storms such as this, you may miss out on the opportunity to mine more BTC on a difficulty drop. Blockware has data centers in seven different states, allowing our clients to easily diversify their fleet across multiple locations.

Start mining with Blockware today: https://mining.blockwaresolutions.com/info