Blockware Intelligence Newsletter: Week 184

Bitcoin on-chain analysis, mining analysis, macro analysis; overview of 7/19/25 - 7/25/25

BTC Consolidating

In our Q3 market update, we highlighted ~$125,000 as the next likely level of resistance for BTC – this has more or less proved itself true. After reaching as high as $123,000 two weeks ago, BTC has pulled back slightly and now begun consolidating in the $115k to $120k range.

While many look to the 4-year halving cycles in anticipation of a Q4 blow-off top to occur in Q4 followed by a significant pullback, our base case is that BTC will continue to oscillate between “pumping” and “consolidation.” While BTC is still highly volatile relative to traditional assets, its volatility is diminishing for two primary reasons:

• Larger Market Cap

• Institutional Investor Base

While Bitcoiners are historically used to 1,00%x, 2,000%, or 10,000% returns during bull markets, institutional investors are used to 5 to 10% from treasury bonds and/or the S&P 500. As this investor cohort comprises more of the Bitcoin market, we can expect BTC to begin trading in a less volatile manner. These investors are quicker to realize gains, limiting explosive up-side moves. However, they are also passive capital allocators, which provides a steady in-flow of bids preventing any significant drawdowns.