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With the Q3 close on Wednesday, Bitcoin put in its first green quarterly candle in a year. Three straight green months off the June low of $58K and puts Bitcoin less than 5% below where it opened the year.
ETF inflows also came in positive for the quarter, with ~81,667 BTC; nearly the entire net-outflow of Q2 & Q1 combined. Total holdings sit at 637,959 BTC, about 10% below the October 2025 peak of 708,496, and 86,000 BTC above the July trough. More than half of what left during the drawdown has already come back.
On a more zoomed-in view, last week alone, ETFs saw ~31,000 BTC worth of net-inflows. “Momentum traders” came in strong to close out the quarter.
On a super-short term basis, BTC may be due for consolidation soon. The fear and greed index has spiked to its highest level since Q4 2025 in the wake of this recent rally.
Long-term holder supply has slowly trickled down over the past few weeks, which is to be expected considering BTC is up nearly 50% off the lows. However, it remains well-above previous bull market highs which means BTC still has plenty of room to run; supply remains sufficiently tight.
Big week of data macro-wise. The 10 year touched 5.33% on Wednesday, the highest since 2002, and Bitcoin held $83K. Then the September jobs report printed 29,000 against 90,000 expected, August was revised down by 29,000, and unemployment ticked up to 4.2%. That came one week after core PCE missed to the downside at 3.0%. The Fed hiked on September 16 into an economy that was already cooling, and the market has now taken an October hike off the table. Liquidity is expanding globally, the domestic hiking cycle looks finished, and Bitcoin absorbed the worst of the yield spike without making a new low. That’s the setup.
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