Blockware Intelligence Newsletter: Week 199

Bitcoin on-chain analysis, mining analysis, macro analysis; overview of 1/12/26 - 1/16/26

Bitcoin’s hot start to 2026 persisted into this week. BTC is up ~7% YTD compared to ~6% for gold and ~1% for the Nasdaq 100.

As time goes on it becomes more and more evident that November was a bottom for Bitcoin. Multiple on-chain indicators of capitulation (discussed ad nauseam in last week’s newsletter), growing risk-on appetite, and a (quiet) 15% move off the low, all point towards continued recovery.

One chart showing on-chain evidence of capitulation that we didn’t discuss last week is…