Blockware Intelligence Newsletter: Week 188

Bitcoin on-chain analysis, mining analysis, macro analysis; overview of 8/16/25 - 8/22/25

Jackson Hole Fed Symposium

In his Jackson Hole speech this morning, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell did hint at the possibility of a rate cut in September, but with some hedging, not outright dovishness. He continues to remain cautious about the potential inflationary impact of tariffs, which would necessitate (in his view) the continuation of tight monetary policy. However, the fact that he expressed a willingness to cut rates is a bullish sign. Powell is big on telegraphing his next move and avoiding throwing any curveballs to the market.

While global liquidity has been ripping higher throughout 2025 in-spite of the Fed’s tight policy, a policy pivot would be received well by the market, providing fuel for a short to medium term rally.

In this week’s newsletter we will breakdown multiple indicators that support our thesis on the end of Bitcoin’s “4-year cycles.” Moreover, we’ll dissect the recent shift in mNAV guidance from Michael Saylor and how this will effect Strategy ($MSTR) long-term.