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The Bitcoin Bottom Is In
For the past two months we’ve had late August marked on our calendars as the time to look out for. The breakout we’ve been in hopeful anticipation of has taken place. In just 48 hours BTC ripped more than 20%, breaking out past the short-term holder cost basis and the 200-day moving average.
It has long been our view that “narrative follows price”, not the other way around. Price is set by marginal changes in supply and demand (more on that here); as such changes occur, price reacts. Humans, being emotional and pattern-seeking, look for cause and effect, narratives beyond supply/demand they can point to to account for the change in price. These narratives are often a byproduct of the price movement rather than the catalyst themselves.
That being said, there is one narrative around this weeks bullish price action that is of worthwhile note: The US Treasury providing support to long-end bonds. With bonds entering further into a grueling bear market, and the 30-Year rate at its highest level in 18 years, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a plan to double the size of long-end debt buybacks from $2B to $4B.
A portion of this move in Bitcoin may then be attributable to a decline in the dollar; the DXY is down 1% on the week and 2% on the month.
Furthermore, Bitcoin wasn’t the only hard money asset to catch a bid this week, Gold and Silver are up 5.5% and 7.7% respectively.
It was a big week for the Bitcoin ETFs. More than 20,000 BTC in net-inflows which is the most since October of 2025 (and this doesn’t even have today’s data yet).
“4 Year Cycle” followers have been convinced that Bitcoin must bottom in Q4 of this year with a ~75% drawdown from the peak. However, with the past six months of price action & on-chain data signaling the transfer of coins from weak hands to strong hands, classic bottom-formation behavior, its unsurprising that Bitcoin is divorcing itself from the calendar-based speculation.
BTC bear markets being a 50% decline rather than a 75% decline will cause a fundamental shift in the way institutional investors approach this asset. A 50% decline is much easier to hedge than a 50% decline followed by another 50% decline (which is what happens during a 75% drop).
Bitcoin’s compressed volatility over-time is quite evident when looking at the price performance by halving epoch. As it stands, BTC has hardly left the “0 to 100% returns” band this halving epoch.
With Bitcoin up 20%, the economics of a Bitcoin Mining operation become more attractive overnight. Below is a snapshot of a $100,000 deployment into Bitcoin Mining machines.
With tax savings factored in, a $100,000 deployment nearly pays for itself in just 12 months with Bitcoin at $77,000.
However, machine prices tend to be correlated with the price of Bitcoin. Blockware has a handful of remaining units from a batch of machines purchased with BTC below $65,000. If you’d like to purchase machines priced for sub $65k BTC, contact sales@blockwaresolutions.com (or fill out the form here).
The minimum deal size is $50,000 and closing funds must be delivered no later than next Friday.
The AI/mining split is also a useful reminder for home miners: hashrate alone is never the whole story. The durable inputs are power cost, wall watts, uptime, cooling, and whether the machine can hold its advertised rate without rejects or restarts. Same discipline, just at a very different scale.