Blockware Intelligence Newsletter: Week 211

Bitcoin on-chain analysis, mining analysis, macro analysis; overview of 5/11/26 - 5/15/26

What the Market Is Missing About Kevin Warsh

With April CPI hitting a 3-year high of ~3.7%, entities like Goldman Sachs & Bank of America are tapering their rate expectations. The market is now pricing in less than a 1% probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. In fact, the market is now placing a 38% probability of at least 1 interest rate hike before the end of the year.

Although there are legitimate, data-backed reasons to believe that the Fed will and should keep interest rates where they are at, the market is missing a key factor, and it’s hiding in plain sight…