Bottom Formation - 2026 Q2 Market Update

Jul 02, 2026

Q2 2026 paired a sharp Bitcoin price decline with a set of macro, on-chain, and mining readings that have historically appeared near market lows.

This Blockware Intelligence Report covers the key signals listed below:

Macro

AI IPO wave. SpaceX listed at roughly $1.75 trillion, the largest debut on record. OpenAI (~$1T) and Anthropic (~$965B) are expected to follow. Combined, the three are worth about $3.7 trillion, ~13x more than every US company that went public in 2021 raised.
Sector leadership. S&P 500 gains concentrated in AI-linked sectors: industrials, energy, and technology.
Hyperscaler capex. Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta guided toward roughly $700 billion in 2026, up from about $410 billion in 2025.
Manufacturing. ISM Manufacturing PMI reached 54.0 in May, a fifth straight month of expansion.
Liquidity. M2 money supply is at a record level and expanding again.
Gold. Rolled over after a two-year run, posting its worst quarter since 2013.
June stall. Equity leaders flattened late in the quarter; the Nasdaq-100 consolidated and Nvidia sold off.
Fed and inflation. The Fed held rates in June and markets price a pause. CPI is elevated on energy, which has since turned lower.
Debt and yields. US federal interest expense is at a record above $1 trillion annually; US and Japanese 10-year yields are grinding higher.

Bitcoin On-Chain

MVRV. About 1.13, in the 1.0 to 1.5 accumulation band.
Long-term holders. Supply at a record near 14.8 million BTC; still accumulating.
ETF flows. Record quarterly outflow of about 72,000 BTC, the cohort’s first major capitulation.
Supply in profit. Fell below 50%, leaving the majority of coins underwater.
Coin Days Destroyed. Subdued, in the lower fifth of its two-year range; old coins are not moving.

Strategy

STRC. Broke its $100 par to about $75 before rebounding; it did not behave like a money-market instrument.
Solvency. No default risk to MSTR; preferred dividends can be paid or deferred.
BTC sales. The June 29 framework caps sales near $1.25 billion, a fraction of Bitcoin’s $20 to $30 billion daily volume.
Dilution. The live risk is dilution. MSTR trades near 0.63x mNAV, below the value of its Bitcoin, so equity-funded buys now reduce Bitcoin-per-share.

Mining

Hashrate. Rolled over roughly 16% from a late-2025 peak, from about 1,120 to 936 EH/s.
Economics. Breakeven varies sharply by machine and power rate.
Hardware. Efficiency has plateaued; no more efficient air-cooled ASIC has shipped since the S21 XP, roughly 20 months ago.
Taxes. Mining hardware qualifies for 100% first-year bonus depreciation under Section 168(k).