BTC Rallies In-Spite of Geopolitical Conflict
Breaking News in Finance and Bitcoin - 3/2/2026
Major Geopolitical events taking place during non-trading hours tend to cause wild fluctuation in the price of Bitcoin. Why? It is the most liquid asset that trades 24/7/365, in every jurisdiction.
When investors are uncertain and want to get into dollars fast, they sell what they can; which often times is BTC. Alternatively, if investors want to get long fast, but traditional markets are closed, they buy what they can; which often times is BTC.
Over the weekend, as conflict arose between the U.S. and Iran, BTC, as expected, sold off immediately. However, the sell-off was incredibly weak ($65k to $63k) and followed with a swift rebound. The takeaway? The people still holding BTC, after a 50% drop from the high, are convicted long-term holders. We discussed in-detail in Friday’s premium only newsletter, but supply is beginning to constrict. While it may take a little while before this results in higher prices, its a sign of market recovery.
A steelman would point towards the fact the the S&P is green on the day — and the broader market is not concerned with this conflict. However, despite green intraday performance, the S&P opened the day ~50 points below its Friday close.
Moreover, a strong performance from the $DXY over the past day, signals that the conflict is igniting a relative degree of fear/uncertainty in the markets. When investors are nervous, they go to dollars.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI — a cornerstone metric for gauging industrial health — printed a reading of 52.4 for February. Because any value above 50 indicates an expansion in the manufacturing sector, this figure confirms that industrial activity is growing rather than contracting.
This is the second consecutive month with a PMI > 50; after months of sub-50 values. In 2017 & 2021, BTC rallied alongside economic expansion (indicated by high PMI values, among other data points). Now that Bitcoin is more widely available and traded by a more traditional cohort of investors, its reasonable to expect that is general correlation to macroeconomic business cycles will increase.
For reference, in 2023 & 2024, BTC rallied in-spite of poor PMI data. This is due to idiosyncratic catalysts, namely the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, which allowed BTC to catch a bid.
