BTC Thrives Despite Geopolitical & Macro Uncertainty
Breaking News in Finance and Bitcoin - 3/16/2026
Since the U.S. attacked Iran on February 28th, BTC has been the top performer among all major asset classes:
BTC: +12%
SPX: -2%
TLT: -4%
Gold: -7%
Silver: -16%
While this is a relatively short-window, the recent outperformance is raising green flags for BTC bulls. BTC normally struggles during periods of large-scale macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.
This recent price action hints at idiosyncratic factors, likely a supply shortage, that are proving to be more impactful on the market than marginal demand changes due to this event.
This relief rally for BTC has come at a time in which the market began pricing in a more hawkish position from the Federal Reserve. The market is now placing a 39% chance of no more rate cuts this year. A hawkish shift in policy expectations, normally a bearish catalyst for BTC, having no impact on the price is yet another piece of evidence towards idiosyncratic supply/demand dynamics in BTC.
In layman terms, there’s (likely) nobody left holding BTC that is willing to sell or change their position due to factors such as geopolitics or Fed policy; only the hardcore holders are still in the market.
The type to continue holding BTC after a 50% drawdown (plus 75 to 99% drawdowns in BTC related equities), is convicted in their long-term thesis.
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