COLDCARD Hack Visualized On-Chain
On-chain data to visualize the scope of, and response to, the COLDCARD bug.
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By now, you’ve no doubt hear about the COLDCARD entropy bug. (If you haven’t and you used a COLDCARD to generate your Bitcoin Seed Phrase, MOVE YOUR FUNDS ASAP). Over 1,400 BTC have been stolen the past week due to a bug discovered in the COLDCARD firmware.
Typically in this newsletter, we look at Bitcoin on-chain data to analyze supply/demand dynamics in an attempt to derive market alpha. Some of the same metrics we look at for market signal can help us visualize the scope of, and response to, the COLDCARD bug.
~197 million “Coin Days” have been destroyed over the past week. This measures how much BTC moves on-chain multiplied by how many days since each coin last moved.
This was the largest spike in 2026; showing that many COLDCARD users have been holding their Bitcoin for quite a long time. It’s not surprising, given the target demographic of COLDCARD; but it’s fascinating to see this confirmed by transparent, verifiable data.
This resulted in the largest weekly drop in “Long Term Holder Supply” in Bitcoin’s history. ~189,000 BTC, that were previously inactive for 6 months or longer, have been moved in the past week.
A large portion of these coins were likely sent to exchanges; with potentially vulnerable users sending to a “secure” location rather than establishing a new self-custody setup in haste. ~175,000 BTC were sent to exchanges over the past week (avg. of ~25,000 per day)
Despite the frightening headline (“Cold Storage Bitcoin Wallet’s Hacked”), BTC has had no reaction on the price side. In fact, 1-month realized volatility is at it’s lowest level since May.
It’s a good sign for the market that bad news is not being reacted to as such.
Furthermore, relative to the total Bitcoin trading volume, the ~1,400 BTC stolen is a non-factor. That’s not to downplay the significance of this event within the Bitcoin culture (or to be-little the impact on the victims), but as it relates to the Bitcoin market, this is a small amount of funds. Across all exchanges, ~60,000 BTC are traded daily.
In terms of dollars, Bitcoin trading volume has hit its lowest level since November of 2023 (right before Bitcoin came roaring back to new all-time highs);~$4 billion of BTC is traded daily right now.
If this situation has you re-thinking your Bitcoin custody setup, you are not alone. Bitcoin custody does not have a “one size fits all” answer. Each setup comes with trade-offs. In our most recent video, we discuss these trade-offs and rank the different types of Bitcoin custody.
Check it out: