Job Data Revision, CPI Cooling, Market Turns... Hawkish?
Breaking News in Finance and Bitcoin - 2/16/2026
BLS Revises Job Growth Data
The recent Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) benchmark revision just delivered a massive reality check to the U.S. macroeconomic picture, slashing 2025’s total job growth from an initially reported 584,000 down to a remarkably weak 181,000. While January 2026 posted a seemingly strong gain of 130,000 jobs, erasing over 400,000 jobs from last year’s ledger confirms that the labor market was virtually stagnant throughout 2025. This historical downward revision exposes a much more fragile economic foundation than the “overheating” narrative previously suggested, signaling that the broader economy has actually been teetering on a low-hire equilibrium for months.
This pronounced labor market cooling is the exact fundamental cover the Federal Reserve needs to justify resuming interest rate cuts in the near term. In the current macroeconomic landscape, weak economic data is quickly interpreted as a bullish liquidity signal, driving a resurgence in risk-on sentiment across financial markets. As investors front-run the expectation of cheaper borrowing costs and expanded fiat liquidity, Bitcoin is uniquely positioned to benefit. Historically, Bitcoin thrives in environments where central banks are forced to pivot toward monetary easing to prop up a stalling economy, making this dramatic jobs revision a powerful macroeconomic tailwind for BTC.
CPI Cooling
CPI for January came in at ~2.4%. Continued cooling in CPI will provide the Fed with the necessary breathing room to lower borrowing costs without reigniting inflation. Ultimately, this macroeconomic backdrop, characterized by easing inflation and imminent rate reduction, creates a highly favorable setup for risk assets and crypto markets moving forward.
CME Futures Becomes More Hawkish
Despite some of the Fed’s most referenced data points pointing towards dovish policy, the CME Futures market on Fed Funds policy has moved hawkish. This market is now pricing in a 92% chance of a pause at the next meeting, up from 82% a week ago.
The Federal Reserve routinely claims that its policy decisions are entirely “data-dependent” (despite the apparent flaws in their data). If we take them at their word, the recent macroeconomic data, specifically the staggering downward jobs revision and a steadily cooling CPI, screams for monetary easing. Yet, as we saw with the CME FedWatch tool, consensus expectations have stubbornly shifted hawkish, currently pricing in a commanding 92% probability of a rate pause. This glaring disconnect between the weakening economic reality and hawkish consensus expectations presents a mispricing opportunity for attentive investors.
To see this mispricing in action, look no further than the bond market. Over the past month, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield has dropped roughly 10 basis points, plunging to 3.41%. Because the 2-year yield fundamentally reflects the market’s compounding daily rate expectations, this downward trajectory indicates that bond traders are expecting a dovish pivot, directly contradicting the hawkish CME probabilities. The bond market is effectively calling the Fed’s bluff.
Historically, when consensus expectations and the bond market diverge this sharply, the bond market is usually the one that gets it right. If smart money in the Treasury market is accurately sniffing out an incoming wave of liquidity, the eventual realization of rate cuts will force a rapid dovish repricing across Wall Street. For risk-on assets like Bitcoin, this creates the ultimate coiled spring: a market currently braced for restrictive policy that could suddenly find itself flooded with cheap capital.
Bitcoin Hashrate Rebounds
The sharp, temporary drawdown in hashrate wasn’t caused by a structural failure in the network; it was the direct result of extreme winter storms battering the United States in late January. As temperatures plummeted and regional power grids across states like Texas faced catastrophic strain, major U.S. mining operators voluntarily curtailed their operations. By rapidly unplugging roughly 40% of the global mining capacity to free up electricity for residential heating, miners acted as a vital pressure release valve for the grid. We accurately forecasted this exact phenomenon in our previous newsletters: when grid stress peaks, flexible loads like Bitcoin mining are the first to power down, leading to sudden, sharp hash rate dips that aggressively rebound the moment the weather clears.
While this event proves the symbiotic relationship between Bitcoin mining and energy infrastructure, it also serves as a stark warning to miners who have all their eggs in one basket. Hosting your entire fleet in a single state or on a single power grid exposes your capital to severe, unpredictable downtime. This is exactly where mining with Blockware provides an unparalleled advantage. We allow our clients to strategically diversify their ASIC hosting locations across multiple climates, grids, and jurisdictions. By geographically distributing your hardware, you inherently hedge against localized weather anomalies and grid failures. While operators concentrated in one region are forced offline to weather the storm, a diversified Blockware fleet ensures that the rest of your machines remain online, hashing consistently and generating uninterrupted yield.
With BTC down, the price of mining hardware has dipped accordingly. Now is the perfect time to load up on machines. To help you scale your operations with top-tier efficiency, and to take advantage of our geographically diversified hosting facilities, we are currently running a Limited Time S21 XP Promo.
If you’re looking to upgrade your fleet or deploy new capital without the risk of single-point-of-failure hosting, here is how you can get started right away:
Hardware: Antminer S21 XP
Price: $18.5/T
Lead Time: Online & Hashing Immediately
Special Bonus: 1 Month FREE Hosting
Note: Bulk discounts are available on orders of $100,000 or more.
Secure your state-of-the-art machines, diversify your geographic footprint, and start generating BTC today.
For a step-by-step tutorial on how to use Blockware’s Self-Service Bitcoin Mining Marketplace, watch the video below. In under 5 minutes you can acquire a BTC miner that is already on the rack and plugged in at one of our state-of-the-art mining facilities.
Learn more by speaking with one of Blockware’s Bitcoin Mining Experts. Sign up for a free consultation today: https://blockwaresolutions.com/mine