Sign up for a FREE 3-part webinar series from The Bitcoin Way to learn why you need a Plan B residency and how to get one
Less than three years after Jamie Dimon called Bitcoin a “pet rock on CNBC”, JP Morgan Asset Management turned bullish. Their 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions give Bitcoin a 10.0% annualized base-case return over the next decade, the highest figure in their entire standalone asset matrix. US large cap stocks come in at 7.5%, REITs at 8.2%, gold at 5.5%, cash at 3.2%. Compounded from the $83,000 spot price they used, the base case lands at roughly $215,000 per Bitcoin by 2036. The bull case of 16.6% gets you past $385,000.
JP Morgan uses three valuation drivers, and the one that carries 65% of the model is Bitcoin’s fixed supply schedule measured against the growth of global money supply. Four halvings have already cut new issuance to around 450 BTC per day, and three more will take place over the next 10 years. According to JP Morgan, “Bitcoin is a bet on fiat currency expansion.” After the last six years that is not a bet anyone should be eager to take the other side of.
JP Morgan’s second driver is Bitcoin serving as a compliment to gold within retail investment portfolios. The bull case assumes central banks will do the same.
The third driver, network adoption, has very little weighting in their base case and we generally agree. Bitcoin does not need to settle coffee purchases to reach a $20 trillion market cap; it needs more capital stored in the asset, not more transactions on the network.
For a full breakdown (plus a bonus valuation driver that JP Morgan is missing) check out the latest video on our YouTube channel:
If the base case is right, every fraction of Bitcoin you can acquire this decade matters, and the cheapest way to acquire it is to mine it.
Blockware’s mining-as-a-service lets you deploy next-generation ASICs at our hosting sites with a 100% bonus depreciation write-off in the year of purchase. Details at blockwaresolutions.com/info.
If you make over $150k per year, you could be 5 to 7 years away from retiring. Our partner Mark Moss will show you how in this free guide:
JPMorgan putting Bitcoin's 10.0% base-case annualized return above REITs at 8.2% and US large caps at 7.5% is notable, especially with the fixed supply schedule against money supply growth carrying 65% of the model.