Monday Mining Metrics: 2024 Hashprice Projection: $0.20/Th
Bitcoin Mining Update - 1/02/2024
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2023 Mining Difficulty
Hashrate/difficulty increased by ~104% in 2023, the largest period of growth since 2019.
This comes on the back of the hashprice bull market as well as mining investments made during the bull market finally coming online.
It is unlikely that hashrate will increase to the same degree in 2024, even in spite of new-generation ASICs hitting the market. We’ll likely see hashrate growth more in-line with what we saw in 2020, the last time we had a Bitcoin halving.
Assuming hashrate grows at the pace it did in the last halving year, 35% in 2020, we’ll be looking at ~670 EH/s by the end of 2024.
Flat Difficulty Adjustment Projected
After a steep previous adjustment of +6.8%, the next projected change in difficulty is effectively flat at -0.05%.
We are roughly 3/4ths of the way through this difficulty epoch so it’s unlikely that any major adjustment, up or down, takes place.
2024 Hashprice Forecast
Hashprice will likely soar in 2024 as the combination of a rising Bitcoin price and high transaction fees will offset the counteracting effects of the BTC halving and rising mining difficulty.
Hashprice will rebound relatively quickly after retesting the lows in April when the BTC block subsidy drops to 3.125 BTC.
By the end of the year, we expect hashprice will hit $0.20/Th/Day. We’ve outlined a potential trajectory for hashprice hitting ~$0.20 by the end of 2024 based on the following expectations:
- BTC Price: ~$100,000 (base case)
- Hashrate: ~670 EH/s
- TX Fees: ~6.25 BTC per Block
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