Monday Mining Metrics: Howard Lutnick Praises Bitcoin Miners
Bitcoin Mining Update - 4/28/2025
7% Negative Difficulty Adjustment
Mining difficulty is projected to decrease by ~7% in the coming days. This will be the largest negative difficulty adjustment since December of 2022 during the post-FTX miner capitulation. This will provide a nice boost to miner economics, especially when coupled with the recent uptick in the Bitcoin price.
There’s two likely catalysts for the drop in difficulty:
Increased curtailments from US-based miners due to rising spring / early summer temperatures.
A slowdown in new machine inflows from Asia in the wake of trade war / tariff uncertainty.
Average Miner Breakeven Cost
Two weeks ago we took a look at the ‘Average Miner Breakeven’ Cost and mentioned that it may be indicating a local bottom for the Bitcoin price. Since then, BTC has risen more than 20% off its low of ~$75,000.
The accuracy of this metric makes sense in a rational economic world: an asset is not going to trade for less than its cost of production. I’ve circled in red each prior instance in which the Bitcoin price intersected with the average cost of production – all of these intersections were followed by the Bitcoin price making a significant move higher. I expect this time to be no different – Bitcoin is going to make a move up before the end of Q2.
This metric is calculated using the average electricity rate of public & private miners as well as a blended average energy efficiency of various ASIC models.
Miner Breakeven Price by Machine Type
The chart above aggregates the cost of production across all miner types to come up with a singular industry average, but not all miners are made equal. The cost of production varies depending on electricity rate and machine type.
In the chart below we break down the ‘cost of production’ for various machine types based on an electricity rate of $0.078/kWh. All 3 variations the ‘Antminer S21’ have a breakeven price of $60,000 or less.
US Secretary of Commerce on Bitcoin Mining
In a recent interview with Bitcoin Magazine, Howard Lutnik had high praise for Bitcoin Mining in the United States. Lutnik cites the ingenuity of miners when it comes to accessing low-cost power – utilizing a variety of energy sources, from hydro to natural gas, and more.
Check out the clip here: https://x.com/BlockwareTeam/status/1916897675477189030
Live Webinar – Learn More About Mining with Blockware
Join us this Wednesday at 1pm EST for a live discussion on Bitcoin Mining! We’ll be answering all of your questions about Blockware, Mining, the current state of the Bitcoin market, and more! We’ll also be announcing the winner of our survey raffle (A Free Antminer S19 XP)! Join us for an hour of valuable insights!
Wednesday, April 30, 2025
1 pm EST
Sign up here: mining.blockwaresolutions.com/webinar
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All content is for informational purposes only. This Blockware Intelligence Newsletter is of general nature and does not consider or address any individual circumstances and is not investment advice, nor should it be construed in any way as tax, accounting, legal, business, financial or regulatory advice. You should seek independent legal and financial advice, including advice as to tax consequences, before making any investment decision.